Thanksgiving is a time for family gatherings, feasts, and, undeniably, a major season for movie releases. As the post-pandemic era of the film industry continues to struggle with recovering its prior bravado, this year appears uniquely promising. A series of anticipated releases, headlined by Disney’s “Moana 2,” Universal’s “Wicked,” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” is shaping up the holiday weekend to potentially set records and rejuvenate theaters across North America.
The excitement surrounding this Thanksgiving weekend is palpable, marking what analysts predict could be one of the largest box-office weekends in years. With projections estimating between $120 million and $150 million for the debut of “Moana 2” alone, this film is set to join the ranks of its successful predecessors. Compounding this excitement, Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II” are already well-received in their second week, creating a formidable array of family-friendly and action-packed options for audiences.
Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango, describes this combination as a “perfect storm” for theaters. This outlook is particularly important given the challenge the industry has faced in recent years: replicating the broad and diverse appeal of past Thanksgiving releases. The industry is desperate for a rebound after several lackluster holiday seasons dominated by pandemic-related interruptions, making this year’s trifecta of films a beacon of hope.
Historically, the Thanksgiving box office has garnered impressive receipts, with 2018 marking the high-water mark when films like “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II,” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald” collectively raked in $315 million. The subsequent years have been a mixed bag, largely hindered by pandemic effects and fluctuating audience engagement with family-friendly content.
In terms of cinema profitability, the Thanksgiving holiday is a pivotal litmus test for the industry. As Paul Dergarabedian from Comscore notes, the closing weeks of the year carry significant weight in determining annual revenue—an essential metric for stakeholders. The present economic climate, mixed with film entertainment fluctuating, heightens the stakes for this Thanksgiving’s output.
Disney has long held a strong grip on the Thanksgiving box office, riding high on successful animations and family films that draw substantial audiences. However, the company’s recent output hasn’t quite matched prior successes. From the 82.1 million debut of the original “Moana” in 2016 to the disappointing performances of titles like “Strange World,” the stakes for “Moana 2” couldn’t be higher.
Interestingly, “Moana 2” arrives following the success of “Inside Out 2,” which grossed over $154 million domestically. The precedence suggests that there is still a fervent demand for quality animated storytelling, opening doors for “Moana 2” to not only match but potentially surpass its animated siblings. As audiences continue to gravitate toward powerful narratives celebrating family and cultural themes, “Moana 2” capitalizes on these desires with favorable anticipation.
As the film industry navigates the post-pandemic landscape, the success of this Thanksgiving weekend is paramount. The combination of “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” could usher in a much-needed recovery phase for theaters, showcasing the potential for revitalizing the box office.
All signs point to a possible reestablishment of cinema as a vital element of cultural experiences, affirming that audiences are ready to return to theaters en masse. With ticket sales anticipated to exceed $200 million over the holiday weekend, not only may this year’s Thanksgiving become one of the highest-grossing in history, but it could also signal a resurgence in public excitement and engagement with cinematic experiences.
The convergence of nostalgia, engaging storytelling, and significant releases creates a potential renaissance for the film industry in 2023. The performances of current and future releases will shape the perception of the industry going forward, as the understanding of audience engagement continues to evolve with each season.